NFL Week 12: Thanksgiving, COVID, Hemingway, And Raiders Best Bets
· 2023-11-22

NFL Week 12: Thanksgiving, COVID, Hemingway, And Raiders Best Bets

Well, this was going to be a shortened version of my normal column because of Thanksgiving week, but now it’s going to be even shorter because I have freaking COVID. Take a listen to this week’s edition of Gamble On to hear more about that.

But yes: My original plan was going to be a few hundred words about what I’m thankful/not thankful for this Thanksgiving. As a result of the above COVID mishegas, I’ve decided to knock it down to six words.

THANKFUL: Black Friday NFL!

NOT THANKFUL: It’s the Jets.

By the way, legend has it Ernest Hemingway was once asked to write the shortest short story, and he came up with the shortest and saddest: “For sale: Baby shoes, never worn.”

Well, “Black Friday NFL: It’s the Jets” is a close second.

Onward, upward, ahoy, a-choo, I’m going to bed.

Ofereleven. Yes. I’m spelling 0-11 phonetically in an effort to get this damn losing streak off my back. I am determined to be a net positive longshot parlay winner at America’s sportsbooks for the third consecutive year.

This week at DraftKings it’s the Raiders +9.5 at home against the Chiefs, the Vikings -3.5 at home against the Bears, the Eagles -3 at home against the Bills, and the Browns outright over the Broncos in Denver.

Rationale: The Chiefs offense is, if not broken, teetering, and a road game against a peppy-ish Raiders team isn’t ideal; the Vikings are too fun to not win and cover; the Eagles are too good to not win and cover; and the Browns … well, I just think this should be pick em at worst.

Up to 5-6 on the year at +160 a pop at BetMGM, as I had the Lions -1.5 against the Bears, the Dolphins -6.5 against the Raiders — squeaked that one out — and the Bills -1 against the Jets. This week, it’s a Thanksgiving special: Cowboys -3.5, Lions -1.5, 49ers -1. Of the three, the Lions worry me the most.

Nailed this one, saying the Chargers giving three points in Green Bay made me nervous, and the Packers proved me right, winning outright.

This week’s favorite that is making me — and I’m reasonably certain everyone else — nervous is the Broncos giving 2.5 points to the Browns. As I said above, this feels like a pick’em to me.

Went 0-2 last week, down to 16-22.  Obviously filing this too early, so it’s some Thanksgiving stuff(ing) I’m going with here …

Brandin Cooks, anytime touchdown, +240 at FanDuel: The Cowboys are throwing non-stop, the Commanders can’t stop the pass, Cooks cooks in a dome setting, it just lines up nicely.

Jared Goff, under 255.5 passing yards, -114 at PointsBet, a Fanatics Experience: While Goff has exceeded this number half the time this year, the Packers have only let one passer exceed the number. Add in the fact the Lions would prefer to run anyway, and there you have it.

I did not, but I broke even in DFS this week! Moral victory!!!

Down to 4-7 after going with the over in the Eagles-Chiefs game. There are no more overs, ever. 

Going with the Raiders +9.5 at home against the Chiefs. Double yuck.

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