“Lower-than-expected” volume of tourists from China has been a factor in Philippine tourism industry 2023 performance being “below expectations”, says a Tuesday note from Maybank Investment Bank Bhd.

“Tourism is one of the low-hanging fruits that we thought would flourish when the economy reopened to tourism activities in February 2022. Nevertheless, the performance so far has been below expectations,” added a Maybank analyst team.

It noted that the number of overseas tourists to the Philippines in the 11 months to November 30, stood at 4.82 million.

That was an increase on the 2.65 million tourists in full-year 2022, but still far from the 8.26 million arrivals in the pre-pandemic trading year of 2019, indicated Maybank’s research.

A number of commentators has mentioned that the Philippine casino industry had benefitted in 2023 not only from a return of foreign tourists, but also domestic tourism, and domestic demand.

Bloomberry Resorts Corp, promoter of the Solaire Resort & Casino, one of a number of private-sector casino resorts within a zone called Entertainment City in Manila, had said in its third-quarter results issued in November that “despite the quarter’s weaker economic climate, domestic gaming demand remained strong”.

At the end of November, casino industry consultancy GCG Gaming Advisory Services Pty Ltd said in a market update: “Of concern is that [Entertainment City’s] third-quarter GGR was 5.7 percent lower than first quarter of 2023. We attribute this to the market being predominantly local and the lack of Chinese junket play”.

Maybank observed in its Tuesday update that in full-year 2019, Chinese visitors made up 21.2 percent of all Philippine tourism arrivals, compared to only a 5.0 percent share in the first 11 months this year.

“The [first] 11 months of 2023 period posted only 242,107 tourists from China,” said Maybank. The figure compared to tally of 1.74 million in 2019.

Looking at the 2024 macroeconomic outlook for the Philippines, Maybank stated: “After the gruelling, elevated inflation rate and aggressive interest rate hikes in 2023, we expect the Philippines economy to grow at a faster clip in 2024 at +6.5 percent (2023 estimate: +5.8 percent).”

The memo added: “We envisage growth to be driven by domestic demand, supported by resilient private consumption, stable employment and continued infrastructure drive.”