RotoGrinders’ expert Derek Farnsworth previews the New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers playoff series, breaking down the odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and dishing his best bets before things tip off Monday night. 

As a Jazz fan, I have no allegiance to any of the teams in the playoffs. As an unbiased observer, the Knicks and Pacers are two of my favorite teams to watch. They both carry themselves as underdogs, which makes them easy to support. The Knicks have a cast of overlooked players wanting to prove themselves, while the Pacers are a young, up-and-coming team. In this playoff series preview, we’ll take a look at the matchup, various betting markets, the paths for each team to win, and my favorite values.

Regular season head-to-head results: 

The Knicks and Pacers play contrasting styles of basketball. The Knicks finished the regular season ranking 30th in pace and ninth in defensive rating. In their first-round series against the Sixers, they held Philadelphia to 106 points or fewer in four of the six games. They love to play games at a slower pace and beat their opponents in the half-court. 

The Pacers take a much different approach. They were second in pace during the regular season and were more concerned with their play on offense (second in offensive rating) than defense (24th in defensive rating). In their first-round series against the Bucks, they scored more than 120 points in all four of their wins. 

This series could be as simple as which team can impose their will on the other. We shouldn’t put much stock into regular season results, but interestingly, the Pacers won the two high-scoring meetings, and the Knicks won the single low-scoring game. The team that can dictate the pace and force their opponent to play their style of basketball should win the series.

The Knicks have home-court advantage and are currently -245 moneyline favorites to win the series at DraftKings. They opened as 6-point favorites in Game 1 and had a 27-14 record at home during the regular season. As long as they take care of business in Madison Square Garden, they will earn themselves a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. The key for them is to avoid getting trapped in their opponent’s pace of play. That’s easier said than done given how fast Indiana plays. 

The Pacers picked up a win on the road in the first round against the Bucks but were only 21-20 on the road throughout the regular season. We can’t hold this against the Pacers, but it’s worth noting that the Bucks were without Giannis Antetokounmpo for the entire series and without Damian Lillard for a couple of the games. For the Pacers to beat the Knicks, they need to force New York out of its comfort zone with their up-tempo play, and hopefully steal one of the first two on the road. If they head home with a 0-2 deficit, winning four of the next five games will be extremely difficult. 

Jalen Brunson taking on Tyrese Haliburton is the matchup everyone is anticipating. Brunson is breaking playoff scoring records left and right and is currently -8000 to lead this series in points. He’s clearly the top-scoring option on the Knicks, and the Pacers have more of a balanced offensive attack, so it’s hard to see anyone else scoring more points. Unfortunately, that’s not a bettable number unless you want to win $1 on a $100 bet. 

Haliburton is the favorite (-215) to lead the series in assists. While this is a slightly more appealing number, I prefer Brunson at +150. He’s playing more minutes than Haliburton (averaged 43.8 minutes in the first round), he has a better matchup (as noted above), and the two had similar assists numbers in the first round (9.0 to 9.3). The Pacers will do whatever they can to get the ball out of Brunson’s hands, which could create more assist opportunities for him. 

As far as my pick to win, I have to go with the Knicks. They have home-court advantage, they escaped a tougher first-round matchup, and they seem to have all casual NBA fans behind them. If their fans can travel as well as they did in the first round against the Sixers, that should give them a big boost on the road. Even if they don’t win on the road, they just have to hold serve at home and they’ll find themselves in the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in 24 years. 

If you want to bet on the Knicks but are looking for a better payout, there are a couple of options. You can bet on the series spread, which is betting a team to win or lose by a certain number of games. The Knicks are -125 for -1.5 games and +165 for -2.5 games. You can also bet the correct series score. My favorite options here are the Knicks 4-1 (+310) and the Knicks 4-3 (+350). The thought process here is that they win the series at home in Game 5 or Game 7.

Pick Recap: