Maybank Securities Inc has raised its forecasts for gross gaming revenue (GGR) for Solaire Resort North (pictured), a casino complex opened on Saturday by Bloomberry Resorts Corp (BLOOM) in Quezon City, north of Metro Manila.

The new complex has the potential to supply circa 15 percent of Bloomberry’s 2024 GGR, and 22 percent of the 2025 annual total, as the property ramps up its business, said a Wednesday note from the institution.

The new estimate represents increases from previous forecasts of 9 percent of GGR contribution for 2024, and 14 percent next year.

“We raise our forecasts for the new casino in terms of capacity and drop volumes,” wrote analyst Raffy Mendoza.

“We were given a tour of Solaire Resort North a few days after the grand opening and were impressed by the property. Most visitors we saw were locals,” he added.

The US$1.0-billion Solaire Resort North features 526 rooms and suites, and its casino offers 2,669 electronic gaming machines and 163 tables across four levels, according to Bloomberry.

Bloomberry’s first Philippine property – Solaire Resort & Casino, at Entertainment City, Manila – opened in 2013. The company also runs the Jeju Sun Hotel & Casino in Jeju, South Korea.

In Wednesday’s memo, Maybank said it was revising down by 8 percent its fiscal-year 2024 earnings estimate for Bloomberry, to PHP10.2 billion (US$174.3 million), to reflect a lower-than-consensus “first-quarter performance”. The institution’s estimate for 2024 would represent a 7-percent increase year-on-year.

Philippines-listed Bloomberry Resorts Corp reported consolidated net income of nearly PHP2.6 billion for the first quarter this year, down 13.3 percent from the prior-year period. Group-wide consolidated net revenue was PHP12.5 billion, circa 3.0-percent down year-on-year, because of lower gaming revenue for the period.

Maybank however raised by 1 percent its earnings estimate for Bloomberry in 2025, to PHP14.5 billion, “to account for higher estimates for Solaire Resort North”.

Maybank’s note on Bloomberry also gave commentary on the settlement announced in March – via a US$300-million share buyback to be effected by Bloomberry – of a 10-year dispute with casino management firm Global Gaming Asset Management LLC (GGAM). The settlement was completed on April 30.

The institution said it reduced its target price for Bloomberry’s shares “to reflect the GGAM settlement”.

Maybank observed: “Based on our correspondence with management, the settlement, amounting to about PHP16.8 billion, will be deducted in the equity portion under ‘shares held by subsidiary’ in succeeding reporting periods.”

It added: “We increase our net debt assumption, as the settlement will reduce cash.”