Solaire Resort North (pictured), a new Philippines casino complex launched in late May, could reach breakeven on earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) by the third quarter; generating PHP800 million (US$13.7 million) in positive EBITDA this year, and PHP9.1 billion in 2025.

That is according to a note from brokerage Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd, based on a visit prior to the venue being opened to the public.

The fact that the US$1.0-billion property – opened by Bloomberry Resorts Corp on May 25 at Vertis, Quezon City, north of Manila – is in a tower structure rather than spread across a large footprint in the manner of its stablemate property Solaire Resort & Casino should not be a problem, said analysts Praveen Choudhary and Gareth Leung.

The first Solaire property launched in 2013 in the Entertainment City casino zone in Manila, The new Solaire Resort North features 526 rooms and suites, and its casino offers 2,669 electronic gaming machines and 163 tables across four levels.

“The market likens Solaire Resort North to StarWorld [Hotel] in Macau,” wrote the analysts, referring to Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd’s first purpose-built property in the latter market, and which is also housed in a tower.

Morgan Stanley said that – given the proximity of Entertainment City and Quezon City, there was some market concern that Solaire Resort North might bring “cannibalisation” of business at Entertainment City gaming resorts.

“We agree but still see Bloomberry benefitting at the expense of other Entertainment City operators,” stated the brokerage.

“We estimate that 18 percent to 34 percent of Entertainment City EBITDA could be eroded as Solaire Resort North ramps; City of Dreams Manila and Okada [Manila] could be hit harder.”

The Morgan Stanley team suggested Clark – north of Quezon, and which also has a cluster of casinos – would be another “feeder market” for Solaire Resort North.

Solaire Resort North would have more offerings via its “VIP floor” in July, and some new food and drink facilities in September, suggested Morgan Stanley.

Bloomberry’s chairman and chief executive, Enrique Razon, said in April that he had expected Solaire Resort North to be “fully ramped up” by 2026.

The company also runs the Jeju Sun Hotel & Casino in Jeju, South Korea.