Macau Post Impressive May GGR Figures

Macau’s overall GGR for May 2024 stood at MOP20.19 billion ($2.51 billion), representing a 8.9% increase from April’s figures of around MOP18.55 billion. This performance marks the best monthly result since January 2020, when the city’s GGR reached MOP22.13 billion, just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The May Golden Week, a five-day mainland China Labor Day holiday season starting on May 1, played a significant role in boosting Macau’s GGR. The influx of visitors during this period, coupled with the strong performance of the mass market segment, contributed to the record-breaking figures.

According to the JP Morgan note, Macau’s May GGR “was better than (already elevated) consensus of MOP19.5 billion to MOP20 billion.” The analysts further highlighted that the month “printed the best GGR in 50-plus months and a record high mass GGR in the history of Macau – quite impressive, especially given mounting investor concerns on macro/consumption elsewhere in China.”

Seaport Research Partners’ analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that May’s GGR stood at 81% of the same month in 2019, indicating the “continued strength in GGR growth.” However, he cautioned that the “base mass recovery remains subdued,” with base mass GGR in Macau still only around 80% of 2019 levels, partially offset by strong premium mass performance.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. expects June’s GGR to show a sequential per-day decline of 9.0%, as managing director Carlo Santarelli forecast that Macau’s second-quarter GGR could reach $7.07 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year, but still 23% below the same period in 2019.

Analysts have also highlighted the seasonal nature of Macau’s gaming industry, noting that the current month of June is typically the “weakest month of the year.” JP Morgan forecasts monthly GGR to pull back to MOP18 billion in June, or MOP600 million per day.

Additionally, Seaport Research’s Vitaly Umansky cautioned that “weather often plays a role in June results as typhoon season has already begun.” He noted that “any major weather event in the region could have a negative impact on revenue and visitation during the summer months.”

Analysts have noted that Macau’s mass market recovery has been particularly noteworthy, as it has managed to thrive despite “mounting investor concerns on macro/consumption elsewhere in China.” This underscores the inherent strength and adaptability of Macau’s gaming ecosystem, which has been able to weather the broader economic challenges.

While the analysts foresee a seasonal softening in June, the long-term outlook for Macau’s gaming industry remains positive. The city’s ability to attract and cater to the mass market segment, coupled with the potential for continued growth in the premium mass segment, suggests that Macau is well-positioned to sustain its momentum and reclaim its position as a global gaming hub.