Gambling revenue in Macau is heading into a gentle September decline prior to reviving for the Golden Week holidays. That’s the forecast of Jefferies Equity Research analyst Andrew Lee in an investor note published Monday.

Lee predicted that September revenues, on a week-by-week basis, will be down anywhere from six percent to 20 percent from August. He then expects a 15 percent to 17 percent rebound in October.

The analyst urged conservatism and judiciousness with regard to Macau-facing gaming stocks. He pointed to heightened promotional activity, writing, “This strategy is expected to continue, due to the focus on maintaining or increasing market share in the region.”

Thanks to summer holidays in China, current trends in Macau were deemed “solid.” Casino winnings for the week ending August 18 slipped four percent, but Lee was unfazed, calling it “relatively consistent” with early-August results.

Gambling win for August 11-18 averaged $78.4 million per day. August had been tracking at an average of $79.5 million a day.

Looking ahead, Lee anticipates that Macanese casino win would average between $73.5 million and $82.3 million per day. “The bottom of the range implies higher than both June and July’s results … which is in line with historical trends.”

Lee continues to favor Hong Kong-traded Galaxy Entertainment and MGM Resorts International among Macanese operators. An upgraded view of Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts, he penned, would require a catalytic event “and the current update is generally neutral for stocks.”

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