BetMGM impresses in NFL Week One, Jefferies analyst says
Sports Game · 2024-09-16

BetMGM impresses in NFL Week One, Jefferies analyst says

BetMGM handily outperformed the field in New York state in the first week of NFL wagering, according to data published September 15 in a Jefferies Equity Research investor note penned by analyst James Wheatcroft.

According to Wheatcroft’s analysis, BetMGM grew its handle 54 percent from last year, revenue 24 percent, and winning margins 8.2 percent. For the market overall, the handle grew by 14 percent, but revenue dropped 43 percent and margin was down 6.8 percent.

FanDuel recorded a seven percent decrease in handle and 54 percent lower revenue. DraftKings improved handle by 30 percent, but dropped in revenue by 39 percent. Its margin was 5.5 percent.

DraftKings seized 38 percent handle share in the Empire State and 31 percent of revenue, to BetMGM’s seven percent and nine percent. However, FanDuel continued to prevail with 38 percent in handle and 46 percent in winnings.

Wheatcroft also drew on GeoComply information for his study, which showed “strong underlying volumes” for betting on Week One of NFL play. Sheer transaction volume shot up 73 percent from 2023 and unique users increased 39 percent.

States that had legalized sports betting prior to 2022 were a particular bastion of strength. Wagering increased 54 percent, with 27 percent more unique users.

Although in its seventh year of legitimized sports betting, New Jersey was still growing by double digits. Transactions leapt 50 percent, while new users increased 23 percent and bets per customer were up 22 percent.

Handle overall grew 14 percent to its best levels since last spring’s NBA playoffs. However, a “weak” winning margin led to a market-wide plunge in revenue of 43 percent.

Allowed Wheatcroft, “This was in line with expectations, given that favorites won 80% of opening week games versus just 50% last year. We expect the low hold rate to be positive for volumes into Week Two and beyond.”

The report concluded with early igaming data from West Virginia. In August, revenue vaulted 69 percent, in the state’s fifth year since legalization of Internet casinos. Summer volumes have been elevated, with a 75 increase in July winning and a year-to-date average improvement of 72 percent.

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