Philippine tourism arrival volume should reach “full recovery” in 2025 relative to 2019′s pre-pandemic levels, thinks Maybank Securities Inc. This would be supported by a “strong influx” of travellers to that nation, from key tourism feeder markets.

For this year however, recovery in visitor volume from mainland China – relative to pre-pandemic trading – had fallen short of the Philippine authorities’  earlier expectations, said the institution.

Maybank’s Tuesday report nonetheless said ongoing infrastructure investment, including airport upgrades, could boost overall tourism arrivals in the longer term.

“We believe that 2025 will mark the Philippines’ full [post-pandemic] recovery, as the country is strategically positioned to continue benefiting from a strong influx of tourists from its key markets, including South Korea, the United States, Japan, and Australia,” suggested Maybank analyst Ronalyn Joyce Lalimo.

She asserted those markets all had “deep historical and cultural ties with the Philippines”.

For the first 11 months this year, the Philippines saw in aggregate, just above 5.35 million visitor arrivals, including 432,439 entries by overseas Filipinos.

The Philippines’ Department of Tourism had targeted “7.7 million” arrivals for full-year 2024. Maybank said what it termed the anticipated “shortfall” was “mainly attributed to lower-than-expected tourist arrivals from China, which in 2019 comprised 21.2 percent of total arrivals but only 5.6 percent in the [first] 11 months of 2024”.

The latest official Philippines tourist arrival statistics also showed that travel volume from other international markets is still somewhat below pre-pandemic levels, Maybank noted.

In terms of foreign tourists, South Korea remains the Philippines’ top source market, with nearly 1.44 million arrivals in the January to November period, accounting for 26.8 percent of all arrivals. The other two major feeder markets that immediately follow South Korea are the U.S. (839,635 arrivals) and Japan (352,630 arrivals).

“As for other important nationals like Chinese and Indians, one particularly enticing factor is President Marcos’ prioritisation of e-visa services. Such extension of e-visa facilities to these key markets will be a significant move that can further boost tourism by making travel more convenient and accessible,” the Maybank report suggested.

The institution has noted of other factors that could spur Philippines’ inbound visits, including the expansion of routes from major airlines, such as Philippine Airlines and Cebu Pacific Air. Those two carriers were in aggregate establishing new routes covering the U.S., Europe, and Asia, while also expanding their domestic routes.

Regarding airport upgrades, Maybank observed that public-partnerships were “key to enhancing Philippine tourism, with 43 projects worth PHP2.74 trillion [US$47 billion] under the ‘Build Better More’ programme.”

Five projects focused on upgrading key airports,” namely “NAIA [Ninoy Aquino International Airport], NMIA [New Manila International Airport], Laoag, Bohol-Panglao, and Laguindingan,” the report said.

The combined cost of those five was PHP938.5 billion, with completion slated for 2028 or beyond, the Maybank report noted.

Once finished, the upgraded NAIA is due to handle 62 million passengers annually, from the current 35 million-passenger design capacity. The New Manila International Airport will be the country’s largest, and is projected to handle up to 100 million passengers annually.

Maybank said a recently-implemented value-added tax (VAT) refund programme for foreign visitors - on purchases over PHP3,000 at accredited stores – is likely to boost tourism spending.