Jefferies analyst David Katz said in a research note that casino visitation in August fell 5.4 percent compared to the corresponding year and was 17.5 percent below pre-pandemic August 2019 levels. He emphasised, however, that the figures align with recent trends despite July’s sharper 10.1 percent drop, which he described as “an anomaly.” Katz wrote, “[The data] supports our view that the greater step back in July was more outlier than trend.”

Regional casinos outperform Las Vegas

While visitor numbers remain depressed overall, gross gaming revenue (GGR) has held up, supported by higher spending per customer and operational improvements across markets. Katz noted that regional casino hubs were performing better than Las Vegas in the near term, citing state-level differences.

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania has already surpassed 2019 visitation levels. Illinois and New Jersey posted deeper declines in traffic. Black Hawk and Colorado saw a 5 percent increase in visitation, though Katz said this was partly driven by Monarch Casino Resorts’ property opening in 2022. Katz forecast that regional gaming markets are better positioned for short-term growth compared to Las Vegas, where Strip expectations remain muted until group bookings accelerate in late 2025.

The Jefferies note also highlighted Penn Entertainment and Churchill Downs Inc. as the best-positioned operators in the current market environment. According to analysts, Penn is benefiting from redevelopment projects in Illinois and Ohio. Meanwhile, Churchill Downs is expanding with new properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire.

US casinos in a post-pandemic adjustment phase

Katz said the US casino sector remains in a post-pandemic adjustment phase, where visitation levels stabilise below pre-COVID norms but revenues stay strong due to higher-yield spending, new openings, and evolving consumer behaviour.

“Revenue is being driven less by sheer visitor volume and more by the quality of spending,” Katz explained, pointing to shifts in how Americans approach casino visits post-pandemic.

The report underscores a structural change in the gambling industry: while overall foot traffic may take longer to recover, US casinos are finding ways to maintain profitability through increased per-capita spend, regional growth, and capital investment strategies.

Las Vegas’ summertime blues

Visitor numbers to Las Vegas dropped 11.3 percent year-on-year in June, the steepest decline since 2021, according to data. The fall in foot traffic has raised questions about short-term recovery. However, two of the biggest casino operators on the Las Vegas Strip – MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment – are downplaying concerns over a soft summer, expressing confidence in a rebound later this year. Both companies highlight the city’s longer-term resilience and a strong lineup of high-volume conventions and trade shows.

However, a looming tax change could pose a longer-term threat. The proposed Federal Big Beautiful Bill aims to reduce gamblers’ ability to deduct their losses from winnings to 90 percent starting in 2026. While the adjustment appears modest, industry experts warn it could push players towards offshore markets with looser regulations.

Las Vegas is experiencing a notable slump in tourism this summer, with resorts and convention centres reporting significantly fewer visitors than in the same period last year. According to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, the city welcomed just under 3.1 million tourists in June 2025, which is an 11 percent drop from June 2024. There were 13 percent fewer international travellers, and hotel occupancy fell by about 15 percent.

Many industry experts and local officials are attributing the decline to the Trump administration’s tariffs and stricter immigration and visa policies, which are said to be deterring international and Latino visitors. Canadian and Mexican tourism — two key foreign markets for Nevada — has seen especially sharp decreases. Unions and tourism workers have echoed these concerns, describing the downturn as a “Trump slump” driven by political rhetoric, higher costs, and travel uncertainty.