Tourism recovery in Southeast Asia is likely to be fastest this year in the casino jurisdictions of Malaysia and Singapore, as well as in Thailand, says a Friday report from Maybank Research Pte Ltd, adding that the contribution from mainland China is likely to continue to lag.

Referring to a club of Southeast Asian nations, the institution stated: “We forecast total visitor arrivals to ASEAN-6 growing by about +27 percent in 2024 (versus +130 percent in 2023), recovering to 98 percent of pre-pandemic levels by this December. Recovery will be faster in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore.”

Though it cautioned that the trends leading into the new calendar year had been choppy: “At 77 percent of pre-pandemic levels in November 2023, total visitor arrivals to ASEAN were not much higher than at the beginning of 2023 (61 percent in January).”

“Relative to pre-pandemic levels, the tourism recovery is marginally stronger in Malaysia (72 percent) and Singapore (71 percent), and slowest in the Philippines (66 percent),” it stated.

Maybank added that total visitor arrivals for 2023 met government targets in Thailand and Vietnam, the latter a casino jurisdiction with all but one venue currently serving only foreign players.

The research house stated the inbound tourism sector would “likely exceed targets in Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia”.

In Asia-Pacific generally, tourism recovery toward the pre-pandemic levels of 2019 “lost steam in the second half of 2023, largely because China’s ‘revenge travel’ after the reopening turned out to be shorter and smaller in magnitude,” said the bank’s update.

“We expect outbound China tourists to return to pre-pandemic levels only in late 2025,” stated Maybank.

“China tourist flows to ASEAN have recovered to only 38 percent of pre-pandemic levels in November 2023, as ‘revenge travel’ remained hotter at home than abroad,” it added.

The institution said this could be attributed to: “consumer belt-tightening” in China “amid a weak economic climate”; and limited international flight capacity,” which led to pricey airfares”; and “perceived bottlenecks” in the application process for visas applicable to mainland China residents.

“In 2024, higher flight capacity, lower fares and waiver of visas for Chinese citizens will support a more decisive tourism recovery,” added Maybank.