Legal sports betting won’t be coming to California via ballot initiative this year, but a decision to hold off on pushing for a voter decision could ultimately speed up the timeline for legalization.

Wagering initiative proponent Kasey Thompson said Monday night that although he was “fighting like crazy” for broad tribal support for this statewide digital wagering initiative, that support did not materialize. He had previously promised that unless he gained that support, he would not pursue the initiative. Thompson said his Eagle 1 group will not move forward with signature gathering, meaning there will be no gambling-related initiatives on the November ballot.

“We are pleased that in the face of widespread tribal opposition, the backers of two initiatives have kept their word and withdrawn what we could only regard as a cynical attempt to legalize sports wagering and online betting in California,” California Nations Indian Gaming Association President James Siva said in a statement. “These initiatives attempted to the use the tribes’ good names to cleanse off-shore, online gambling corporations with an appalling record of malfeasance.

“Let this failure also be a warning to others that seek to dubiously enter the California gaming market. Using tribes for your own gain will get you nowhere.”

Thompson’s withdrawal may well be an opportunity. The chorus from Indian Country over the last few months has been that it doesn’t need Eagle 1’s — or, for that matter, anyone else’s — help to legalize or operate California sports betting, and that this latest attempt would only muddy the waters, confuse voters, and push legalization down the proverbial road.

— Tommy Lorenzo (@sportsbooktom) January 23, 2024

California is set to host three major events — the 2026 Super Bowl at Levi’s Stadium, the 2027 Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium, and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles — in the next four years. With no initiative on the 2024 ballot, it looks nearly impossible for betting to be live by the 2026 Super Bowl, though it could be legal but not live by the 2027 Super Bowl, if the tribes choose to run a campaign in 2026.

“I think what James [Siva] said on my podcast last time is that he was very conservative,” said Victor Rocha, founder of Pechanga.net and host of The New Normal podcast. “I think it leaves it open. But the tribes are very conservative. This leaves it back in the tribes’ hands. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some kind of conversation going on. It does clear the pathway, so we’ll have to see what everybody says.”

In 2022, after a commercial attempt to legalize sports wagering failed spectacularly, the tribes were pointing to a 2026 effort, possibly even sooner. But over the last several months, tribes have said 2028 is more realistic to allow time for voters to get over the fatigue of having to contemplate multiple gaming initiatives.

But Rocha isn’t the only one who thinks now that Eagle 1 has withdrawn its latest attempt, the timeline could change.

“The timeline at this point is going to be contingent on when all stakeholders, tribes collectively, and operators can come to the table without rogue outside influences that think they understand how tribes work,” Las Vegas-based consultant Brendan Bussmann of BGlobal said. “That will dictate the timeline along the way.”

— Victor Rocha (@VictorRocha1) January 23, 2024

California’s tribes have had exclusivity for gaming for about 30 years, and in the last two have shown just how far they will go to retain that. The tribes collectively spent approximately $250 million to kill the operator-led legalization effort in 2022, and in the last several months have stated their position on help from outside of Indian Country clearly.

“What derailed this is what we’ve said from the beginning,” Bussmann said. “The tribes are the stakeholders who hold the keys to the future of sports betting and beyond, and it will be be contingent upon them working together and working with operators to chart a path forward … which could conceivably happen on the 2026 ballot.

The nation’s biggest state has long been considered a panacea when it comes to legal sports betting and ultimately, online casino. California’s tribes have long been crafting a plan that will ultimately bring retail and digital sports betting and online casino to the state, but it’s been a staggered approach.

The hope now is that commercial operators and anyone else interested in a piece of California gaming pie will steer clear and allow the tribes to coalesce around a single idea, rather than spend time battling with outside forces.

“He had the California fever, same things that DraftKings and FanDuel had,” Rocha said. “It was just patronizing in the worst way that I’ve seen in my 25 years in this industry.

“The message is the tribes have a plan, the tribes have a strategy; if you’re going to be an ally, get in the backseat and let us drive. Everyone I talked to said this was a fool’s folly. It just reiterates the message that the tribes are in charge. This was just more dreamers looking for the California gold.”