NBA Finals Betting Preview: Kristaps, Kyrie, And Dallas Steam
Regulation · 2024-06-04

NBA Finals Betting Preview: Kristaps, Kyrie, And Dallas Steam

In this corner, there are the Boston Celtics, a team with one of the best net ratings in NBA history which clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference eons ago and has cruised through the first three rounds of the playoffs with just a pair of losses — despite being down one of its best players in Kristaps Porzingis.

In the other corner, there are the Dallas Mavericks, the fifth seed in the Western Conference that has survived a playoff gauntlet and defeated the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Minnesota Timberwolves in hard-fought series despite never having home-court advantage.

The Celtics are understandably favored to emerge victorious in this season’s NBA Finals, which get underway Thursday in Boston. But at Fanatics Sportsbook, sports bettors are throwing their weight behind the Mavericks — not only to win Game 1, but the entire series.

“Since the Finals were announced, the Mavericks have gotten about 85% of the series tickets and 89% on the Game 1 moneyline,” Max Meyer, a senior editor at Fanatics, told Sports Handle on Monday. “I think the Celtics are getting the respect they deserve, but the public has seen the respective paths these teams have taken and the Mavs made two big in-season acquisitions. The public certainly thinks the Mavs are undervalued.”

Those two big in-season acquisitions, P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, will each likely spend time guarding Porzingis, who is set to return from a calf injury that sidelined him for the entirety of the past two series. How much time Porzingis will log in Game 1 is anyone’s guess, but bettors seem to think he’ll be used sparingly out of the gate, with Al Horford commanding more minutes.

“Porzingis under 6.5 rebounds is easily the most popular prop,” said Meyer. “I guess bettors are not expecting a lot of Porzingis minutes in Game 1.”

Then again, Porzingis has garnered the second-most tickets behind Luka Doncic at Fanatics to drain the most 3-pointers in the series. (In that market, he’s priced at 20/1.)

“Whoever the Celtics big man is who’s getting the majority of those minutes is going to get good looks from the outside,” said Meyer. “Whichever bettors can crack that code, that’s as big an edge as you’re going to get in this series.”

Porzingis, of course, spent some time with the Mavericks before winding up in Boston by way of Washington, while Doncic’s current sidekick, Kyrie Irving, is a former Celtic who’s loathed by Bostonians.

Like Porzingis in the 3-point market, Irving is 20/1 to be named Finals MVP — and Fanatics bettors are eating him up at that price.

“Kyrie to win MVP is the most popular bet in the NBA Finals MVP market by tickets,” said Meyer. “Kyrie’s about 31% of the bets and Luka’s second at 27%. Then in handle, Luka’s 33%, Kyrie’s second at 25%, and Jayson Tatum’s third at 23%.

“Kyrie was 23/1 right when the Mavericks beat the Wolves and he’s come down slightly. If he’s getting Finals MVP, he’s really gonna earn it with Jrue Holiday and Derrick White and the defenders they can throw at him.”

It’s no surprise that the teams’ respective alpha dogs, Tatum (-120) and Doncic (2/1), are favored to be named Finals MVP. Tatum is a -125 favorite over Doncic (+160) to snare the most rebounds over the course of the series, while Doncic is favored to lead in points (-200), threes (-110), and assists (-700).

“Last year, [Nikola] Jokic was the favorite to be points, rebounds, and assists leader,” said Meyer. “Just with Luka averaging near a triple-double, any time you have someone putting up gaudy stats, they’re going to be the favorite in these categories. Getting the same player for all four would be pretty tough.”

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