Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.

“Following the most recent weekly online sports betting statistics (week ending August 25) released by the New York Gaming Commission,” wrote J. P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff September 2, “quarter-to-date online GGR is tracking up 22% year over year, while handle is tracking up 28%, implying a 10.2% hold rate, versus 10.7% during the comparable 2023 period. We note that quarter-to-date figures reflect the first eight weeks of the 3Q24.

“For the week ending August 25, 2024, GGR was up 24% year over year, while handle was up 41%, implying an 8.9% hold rate versus 10.1% in the comparable period ended August 27, 2023.

“FanDuel. Quarter-to-date, gross revenue is tracking up 33% year over year, and handle is tracking up 24%, implying an 11.6% hold rate (up 79 basis points year-over-year). Quarter-to-date GGR share is at 42% (versus 39% in the comparable 2023 period), while handle share is at 37% (versus 38% in the comparable 2023 period). For the week ending August 25, 2024, GGR was up 18% while handle was up 26%, implying an 11.0%  hold rate (down 76 basis points year over year).

“DraftKings. Quarter-to-date, gross revenue is tracking up 2% year over year, and handle is tracking up 21%, implying a 9.7% hold rate (down 182 basis points year over year). Quarter-to-date GGR share is at 35% (versus 41% in the comparable 2023 period), while handle share is at 36% (versus 38% in the comparable 2023 period). For the week ending August 25, 2024, GGR was up 26% while handle was up 40%, implying an 8.9% hold rate (down 96 basis points year over year).

“Caesars. Quarter-to-date, gross revenue is tracking up 1% year over year, and handle is tracking down 2%, implying a 9.1% hold rate (up 25 basis points year over year). Quarter-to-date GGR share is at 8% (versus 9% in the comparable 2023 period), while handle share is at 9% (versus 11% in the comparable 2023 period). For the week ending August 25, 2024, GGR was up 4% while handle was up 5%, implying a 6.6% hold rate (down 7 basis points year over year).

“BetMGM. Quarter-to-date, gross revenue is tracking up 20% year over year, and handle is tracking up 54%, implying a 7.8% hold rate (down 218 basis points year-over-year). Quarter-to-date GGR share is at 6% (versus 6% in the comparable 2023 period), while handle share is at 8% (versus 7% in the comparable 2023 period). For the week ending August 24, 2024, GGR was up 40% while handle was up 113%, implying a 5.8%  hold rate (down 298 basis points year over year).”

Analyst David Katz of Jefferies September 2 looked at Wynn’s prospects for a casino in New York. “As the process to receive a casino license in the state of New York continues,” Katz wrote, “Wynn provided updates to its proposed property earlier this week. The expected joint venture between Wynn, related companies and Oxford Property Group in Hudson Yards will cost ~$12 billion and will provide the community with a 5.6-acre public park, a new public school and 1,500 housing units. Additionally, the companies predict that +5,000 permanent jobs will be created post-construction. However, the proposal remains highly controversial as several local politicians and other groups are staunchly opposed. We remain measured on Wynn receiving a New York license and believe it should continue to focus on improving the challenging stock set-up in Macau pending changing dynamics into the October Golden Week holiday. Further, we focus on other global opportunities, including activation of the considerable land assets in Las Vegas.”

Analyst David Bain of B Riley Securities covered Genius Sports on August 30. “We believe Genius Sports (Buy, $10 price target) BH24E/CY25E consensus estimates may prove conservative. In our view, upside levers include—but are not limited to—greater than modeled online sports gross gaming revenue growth, in-play betting mix, and U.S. online sports book take-rate renegotiation results.

“On its 2Q24 earnings call, Genius stated it expects 20%-plus revenue growth for the `foreseeable future’. However, CY25E consensus sales growth is 14%, 20% growth from CY24E estimates implies an additional $29 million of CY25E revenue versus consensus. Using Genius’ general midpoint flow-through guidance implies an additional $12 million of EBITDA, 11% higher than CY25E consensus EBITDA estimates.”

“July Strip gaming win fell 15% year over year on very low baccarat hold (8.8% vs. 23.9% in July 2023 and 15.5% year-to-date average),” wrote Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas August 28, “with normalized GGR down 1% and ex-baccarat flat. Locals was up +13% year-over-year and Downtown up +10%, though Reno/Sparks was -6%. Visitation data was soft, with Strip revenue per available room/average daily rate down -4%/-2% year-over-year. Overall, headline July results were soft, but influenced by the calendar and hold with normalized/mass market Strip results more flattish while Locals/Downtown were solid.”

Rege Behe is lead contributor to CDC Gaming Reports. He can be reached at [email protected]. Please follow @RegeBehe_exPTR on Twitter.

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