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Austin, baby, Austin!

Contrary to popular perception, the next Formula 1 race to be run on U.S. soil will not be the circuit’s Sin City debut in mid-November. Rather, it will be this weekend’s relatively placid stop in Austin, Texas, home to the United States Grand Prix since 2012.

“Vegas is Vegas. There will be nothing like it on the calendar for years to come and it could become a new Monaco — a special place for F1 races,” Aron Wattleworth, bet365’s trading manager, told Sports Handle. “A New York race would sure take some of the gloss off Vegas, but I can see it holding its own in the future.”

But while, in this instance, everything might not be bigger in Texas, the Austin race has always held its own.

“I’m sure the buzz around Vegas will mean more bets on that than Austin, but the Texas race business has increased year on year,” said Wattleworth. “American interest does peak when there is a home race, which is a natural situation we see around the globe.

“One of the major factors in the overall increase of American business for us is the Netflix series Drive To Survive. This has brought in a lot of new customers, especially from the USA, and once Vegas hits us in a few weeks, the American interest should explode even further.”

Perez on the hot seat?

Max Verstappen and Red Bull have had the driver and constructor titles locked up for weeks, putting together the most dominant season F1 has ever seen. Verstappen has won 14 of 17 races so far, with teammate Sergio Perez taking two of the remaining three and Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz the only driver to prevent a clean Red Bull sweep.

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The reality is that Verstappen is a near lock to win every F1 race this season, and bet365 has installed him as a prohibitive -700 favorite in Austin. Trailing him at 12/1 are both McLaren drivers, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, who have joined Verstappen on the podium in the last two races, swapping runner-up spots in Japan and Qatar.

“They are very similar in talent, but the less experience that Oscar has makes him the more exciting prospect,” Wattleworth said in comparing Piastri and Norris. “[Piastri] seems so chilled for someone so young and can only get better.”

The McLaren duo’s rise has coincided with a disappointing stretch of races from Perez, which explains why bet365 thinks the McLaren drivers are level with Red Bull at 2/1 to both make the podium, and a better bet (-250 to Red Bull’s -225) to both finish in the top six on Sunday.

Perez’s performance has been so lackluster, in fact, that he may be in danger of losing his seat at season’s end if he slips in the driver standings.

“Rumors are that if Perez doesn’t finish second in the [drivers’] championship, he will be replaced, probably by Daniel Ricciardo,” Wattleworth said. “The first person you have to beat is your teammate. Fail in that and you are always under the microscope and threats always lurk around you. Sergio has been a great driver, but the car doesn’t suit his driving style and he is unlikely to ever match Max.

“That said, does the team want a challenger? It is better for Red Bull to have a willing sacrificial lamb to allow them to get their star driver the championship. They also want the constructors championship, though, and an underperforming Perez could be an issue in future years.”

An American struggles as prospects lurk

Driving for the lowly Williams team, the lone American driver on the circuit, Logan Sargeant, is another wheelman who has been conspicuously weaker than his teammate this season. Granted, F1 rookies typically mulligan their way into a second year, but Sargeant has yet to score a single point, while teammate Alex Albon has notched a respectable 23.

“Logan is under pressure, as his performances have not been what Williams would have liked, but the money and interest he brings is massively important for the team,” Wattleworth said. “Hopefully, he will soon start to compete more against his teammate.”

Should Williams grow impatient with Sargeant — or if another team looks to fill a seat with a second U.S. driver — there are a handful of promising candidates.

“As for American drivers of the future, current Indy Car driver Colton Herta is probably next in line,” said Wattleworth. “He has already tested for McLaren, and AlphaTauri showed interest in him. Another to keep an eye on is Jak Crawford. Currently in the F2 category, the 18-year-old looks like he may have a good future. 

“The USA is a massive market for F1 generally, and the teams will want to tap into that, so [they] will definitely be on the lookout for another American on the grid.”