Banking group Nomura expects Singapore casino complex Resorts World Sentosa, run by Genting Singapore Ltd, to show significant year-on-year growth across all three segments of its gaming business for full-year 2023.

“We estimate… rolling chip volume/mass table drop/slot handle to grow 51 percent/30 percent/21 percent year-on-year in financial-year 2023, as we expect progressive improvement in overseas visitor arrivals from China,” wrote Nomura analysts Tushar Mohata and Alpa Aggarwal, in a Thursday note.

It drew some positives from the day-before operating results of Resorts World Sentosa’s market rival, Marina Bay Sands, run by a unit of Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Marina Bay Sands’ third-quarter adjusted property earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose 13.7 percent sequentially, to US$491 million. Net revenues at the property stood at just under US$1.02 billion, up 9.7 percent quarter-on-quarter.

In a Wednesday note, referring to estimates for Resorts World Sentosa, Praveen Choudhary and Gareth Lung, of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd, stated: “We expect Genting Singapore’s third-quarter Singapore EBITDA at SGD260 million [US$189.4 million].”

While this would represent a flat result quarter-on-quarter, it would still be 90 percent of the pre-pandemic third quarter 2019, and represent a 44 percent margin, versus 50 percent margin in 2019, said Morgan Stanley.

Nonetheless, such third-quarter EBITDA at Resorts World Sentosa – if confirmed – would still be up 22 percent quarter-on-quarter if judged on a hold-adjusted basis, stated Morgan Stanley.

Nomura said Wednesday’s results from Marina Bay Sands, “offer a positive read-across” to Genting Singapore, which has still to report its third-quarter numbers.

“Of late, one investor concern” regarding the Singapore casino sector, “has been whether the expanding investigation into illegal money flows in Singapore banks, which involves many banks, is likely to lead to players staying away from the integrated resorts, leading to a decline in revenues,” observed Nomura.

“We think that Marina Bay Sands’ strong results show that underlying volume trends have not been impacted much, if at all,” added the institution.

Nomura noted that – based on Singapore Tourism Board data and its own research – the volume of visitors from Greater China that arrived to Singapore in July and August had been 81 percent and 76 percent respectively of the average for those months in 2019, i.e., before the Covid-19 pandemic.

In September, the volume of such tourists to Singapore had declined to 50 percent of the 2019 average, though Singapore’s experience was “similar to other regions”, observed Nomura. “We expect” Greater China tourist volume “to recover in the fourth quarter,” said its analysts.