A state’s Supreme Court deciding that one of the two leading presidential candidates should not appear on the ballot in that state would seem, at first blush, a highly impactful ruling that should alter the face of the election.

But as we learned after his first criminal indictment, his second criminal indictment, and the release of his mugshot following his fourth criminal indictment, Donald Trump is nearly impervious to the sort of news that would end pretty much anyone else’s candidacy.

By a 4-3 decision, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that the former president is ineligible for office going forward because he “engaged in” insurrection against the government on Jan. 6, 2021. For now, this means Trump can’t appear on the Republican primary ballot in Colorado. Other states may follow Colorado’s lead, or the state’s ruling may be overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court. In other words, there are a number of ways this still could go between now and November’s election.

On paper, this ruling in Colorado based on the 14th Amendment to the Constitution should be a negative for Trump’s chances, and thus a positive for President Joe Biden’s chances and/or those of second-place GOP contender Nikki Haley. However, the latest numbers at PredictIt, a site available in the U.S. that offers markets on various U.S. election outcomes, show little if any downgrade to Trump’s presidential election odds after Tuesday’s news.

Slight shift for GOP nominee

In the first couple of hours after Tuesday’s ruling in Colorado, there was a spike in activity in the market for “Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?” and Trump’s lead over Haley shrunk ever so slightly.

Trump was trading at 80 cents before the news (the equivalent of a -400 favorite in standard sports betting odds) and dropped to 76 cents (-317) before settling Wednesday morning at 77 cents (-335). Haley went from 14 cents (+614) to a high of 18 cents (+456) before stabilizing at 17 cents (+488).

That was by far the most impacted market involving Trump.

In the market for who will win the 2024 presidential election, Trump and Biden have been swapping the lead by a cent or two throughout December. Early Tuesday, before the Colorado news, it was Trump at 41 cents, Biden at 40. Twenty-four hours later, on Wednesday morning, it’s Trump at 40 cents, Biden at 39.

In between, there was a momentary hint of movement presumably inspired by the 14th Amendment ruling. Trump led 42 cents to 38 cents just before the news, and within an hour he was at that 40-39 lead.

On Wednesday morning, Haley was trading at 10 cents to win the presidency, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat considered a party frontrunner if incumbent Biden ultimately decides not to run, at 8 cents.

Curiously, even though Trump leads Biden, and Trump-plus-Haley leads Biden-plus-Newsom, and even Trump-plus-Haley-plus-Ron-DeSantis leads Biden-plus-Newsom-plus-Kamala-Harris, the market for “Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?” continues to favor the Democrats.

As of Wednesday morning, it was Democrat 53 cents (-113 odds), Republican 48 cents (+108) — numbers that, within a cent or so, have held steady for the past month.

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