Last week, I was discussing NFL Most Valuable Player odds in this space. Here’s what I wrote concerning the battle between Brock Purdy, who entered the week as a -200 favorite at FanDuel, and Lamar Jackson, who was the second choice, at +525 at Caesars: “A Ravens win on Jackson’s back could flip the odds for the award across the mobile betting apps.”

So it is written … 

After the Ravens’ dominant victory, Jackson is now the heavy favorite, with DraftKings having the best odds at -170, while Purdy has dropped all the way down to +1400 at FanDuel.

But guess what? If the Dolphins go into Baltimore and defeat the Ravens, and if Tua Tagovailoa has a good game — not even a great game, but just a good game — watch what happens to his +1000 odds at DraftKings.

And if Tyreek Hill goes 12-250-3, he’ll go from a +2500 dog at BetMGM to the favorite.

But what if the Dolphins win 17-13 behind their ground game, and Purdy heads to D.C. and carves up the Commanders? Or what if Christian McCaffrey — +650 at FanDuel — is the engine that gets the 49ers back on track?

Of course, if all these players bust and Dak Prescott goes for 400 and a quartet of TDs Saturday night against the Lions, his +2500 odds at Caesars will crater. Oh, and don’t forget Josh Allen, the quarterback who is having the best statistical season and is singlehandedly leading the Bills to the playoffs. He’s +1400 at BetMGM.

Of course, we all know who the real MVP is: Joe Flacco, 250/1 at bet365. 

My goodness, do I love this market. On to Week 17! 

Now we’re 0-16. Didn’t come close. Should’ve just tailed the big 14-leg anytime touchdown parlay over there at DraftKings. Oh well. Win some, lose most.

It's the longest odds for any winning bet in 2023 at DraftKings and the third-longest in the sportsbook's history. pic.twitter.com/m5dOT3aqZY

— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) December 26, 2023

This week, in an effort to get in the W column, I am going over to FanDuel and taking the Raiders +3.5 against the Colts, the Eagles laying 11.5 at home against the Cardinals, the Bucs laying 2.5 at home against the Saints, and the Chiefs laying a touchdown at home against the Bengals. Comes in at +1228.

Rationale: The Eagles and Chiefs are in get-right spots at home. I feel like they both need statement games, and their opponents are eminently stateable. As for the Bucs and Saints? I just think the Bucs are a better team, full stop. As for the Raiders, I’m playing the mind game here, with interim coach Antonio Pierce going full Raider with this team — plus the Colts, not so good. 

Down to 7-8 — but still a wee bit profitable with these +160 odds at BetMGM. This week, I’m looking at my parlay above to start: Chiefs giving a point, Eagles giving 5.5 points, and let’s add in the Rams at even odds against the Giants.

Nope, thought the Colts would cover in Atlanta, they didn’t, it’s been a rough year. Is it MLB season yet? Anyway, this week the favorite that makes me nervous is the Colts giving 3.5 to the Raiders. At worst, this should be pick’em.

Went 0-2 last week, down to 19-33. This is embarrassing. Worst part is in past years I usually get stronger as the season wears on. Well, if not “stronger,” at least “not objectively worse.” 

This week …

David Montgomery anytime TD, +125 at FanDuel matched with Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD at +138 at Caesars: This is a Brit Devine special from our sister site ScoresAndOdds, and I’ve been hitting it the last few weeks. Bottom line: There has been just one week this season when both didn’t score. All you need is one to score and you profit. 

Chris Olave over 66.5 receiving yards at bet365, or any Olave over anywhere: While I think the Bucs will win, I also know the Saints will be successful in the air. Olave has gone over this number four out of his last five.

DeAndre Swift over 66.5 rushing yards at -115 at FanDuel: Just a pristine matchup for Swift.

Seriously. Take a long walk off a short pier, OK?

Up to 7-9, somehow, as the Panthers somehow covered against the Packers. Can I get to 9-9 on the year? If so, it starts here with the Chiefs laying a touchdown. I refuse to believe Mahomes and Kelce don’t have one more run in them.