Usually at this stage of the Oscars game — a little less than two months out — the favorites for Best Picture are taking shape. Sure, there’s always room for an upset, such as CODA two years ago, but usually things are rounding into focus by this time. There is typically a favorite, followed by one or two other movies that are right there, ready to pounce.

As of this moment, however, it appears that Oppenheimer has asked us all to put on our protective goggles, because this decided non-bomb of a picture is locked, loaded, and — according to the sports betting operators — getting darn close to a sure thing.

The film is -1000 at DraftKings to win Best Picture, fresh off its victory at the Golden Globes and its Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nomination for best cast.

Of course, nothing is ever guaranteed.

“There’s always room for something to come up late and win,” said Christopher Rosen, the digital director at Gold Derby, a site that specializes in predicting Hollywood races. “The entire Academy votes on it, and so there’s always a chance a favorite falters because the voters fall in love with something else.”

Rosen points to CODA, which no one was talking about as a Best Picture contender at this point two years ago. Even last year’s winner, Everything Everywhere All at Once, wasn’t in a dominant position at this juncture.

So what might the live underdogs be this year?

“If something is going to beat Oppenheimer, I think it would be something smaller,” Rosen said. “It would be The Holdovers or American Fiction. They’re both still in play. Those are the types of movies in the last few years that have won. Holdovers is a found-family film, a feel-good film. Fiction has a lot to say about the current climate. If things break right, one of them can gain momentum. The value is there.”

Indeed it is: The Holdovers is +1000 at DraftKings and American Fiction is +2500 at bet365, the other major online operator currently offering Oscars odds. (In years past, FanDuel, PointsBet, and Barstool Sportsbook have offered markets as well, but FanDuel hasn’t posted yet. Neither has Fanatics, which is in the process of taking over PointsBet, or ESPN BET, which replaced Barstool in November.)

Of the two, Rosen notes that American Fiction has a clearer path, as it’s one of the films going up against Oppenheimer for best cast at the SAG Awards (the others are Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, and The Color Purple).

Best Actor, Actress

On the Best Actor front, the race is a bit murkier. Cillian Murphy is the favorite — -275 at bet365 — for his portrayal of J. Robert Oppenheimer.

“This is definitely not done,” Rosen said. “Murphy is very much in play to win. He was the lead of Oppenheimer playing a historical figure in an acclaimed movie everyone has seen. It’s a great mix for a win.”

Rosen, however, thinks there’s plenty of room for the current second favorite, Paul Giamatti at +275 at bet365, to sneak in and take the hardware for his role in The Holdovers.

“He won the comedy best actor at the Golden Globes, and has a real strong shot at the SAG award,” Rosen said. “People love him. SAG is a lot of working actors who vote, and Giamatti has worked with a ton of people. People love his determination, he’s got a great story, and he’s put in more time than Murphy. I would think Giamatti has the best shot.”

Rosen also isn’t ready to close the book on Bradley Cooper for his role in Maestro.

“Everyone is out on Cooper now, but just a few weeks ago, his odds were so much better,” Rosen said. “But stranger things have happened. This is classic Oscar bait, playing a real life figure, undergoing a physical transformation.”

Cooper is +800 at DraftKings.

For Best Actress, Lily Gladstone has rocketed up the charts after her Golden Globe win. The Killers of the Flower Moon star saw her odds drop to -188 at bet365 after her win.

“Gladstone has pulled ahead, as people have really responded to her performance,” Rosen said. “The movie will get a lot of nominations but not a lot of wins, so her winning here makes sense. Emma Stone could still win, though, especially if she wins a BAFTA.”

Stone is +135 at DraftKings for her role in Poor Things, though the longshot Rosen really has his eyes on is Anatomy of a Fall’s Sandra Huller, +2500 at both sites .

“That movie is going to do better than we expect with the nominations,” Rosen said. “It won at Cannes. She’s a dart throw, but if she gets nominated, I’d put her in third as far as odds go.”

Locked down?

The next three markets – and, for now, the last three being offered – are all about as sewn up as Stone’s character in Poor Things.

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer at -1000 at both sites: “He’s the mayor of Hollywood,” Rosen said. “This is like a coronation.” (Though Rosen still thinks that Willem Dafoe is a live longshot for his Poor Things performance at +1600.)

Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers at -2000 at both sites: “She’s won every award so far. I can’t make a case for anyone else,” Rosen said.

Best Director: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer -3300 at bet365: “I cannot imagine a world in which anyone else wins,” Rosen said.

The Oscars nominations will be announced Tuesday, Jan. 23, and the awards will be given out Sunday, March 10.

Photo: Julien De Rosa/Getty Images