Attention arbitrage bettors: One of the most robust opportunities in the world of arb betting awaits, and it’s the 2024 presidential election.

But before we get to the odds, we do need to get the potential bad news out of the way, for this arb opportunity is not without risk.

For starters, we need to assume the following: That you believe either Donald Trump or Joe Biden will be elected president. 

And while the above feels like a pretty safe assumption – and this is going to get dark for a moment – the odds say otherwise. Well, at least the Social Security Administration’s actuarial life table says otherwise.

Two old guys walk into a D.C. bar …

An average 81-year-old male has a 92.5% chance to make it through the year, whereas a 77-year-old male has a 94.8% chance to blow out the next round of birthday candles.

Now obviously, the 81 and 77 year old people we’re talking about here have the best medical care imaginable, and they’ve both already made it through the first three months of the “election year,” so it’s probably safe to say their odds are better than most to make it around the sun come Election Day.

But still: They’re old. 

Then, of course, there is the possibility that one or the other candidate somehow doesn’t end up as the party’s nominee. And while this seems highly unlikely at this point, stranger things have certainly happened in the history of presidential politics.

“The best and most recent parallel is when LBJ announced he would not run for re-election or accept his party’s nomination,” said Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “That was on March 31, 1968, so we are getting very close to that point in the election year. The problem is that you run into the risk of missing many states’ filing deadlines to get on the ballot by then.”

And every state has different ways to handle that potentiality, none worth getting into here, except to note, again: The arbitrage opportunity is not without risk. (And there’s also the possibility that PredictIt, where part of this wager needs to get made, gets shut down. There’s a lot of risks.)

And then there’s this: You need to A) travel to Canada and B) have a workaround around limits. 

But that’s it.

The arb opp

Sports betting platforms in America aren’t allowed to offer betting markets on American politics, but sportsbooks in Canada are very much allowed.

As such, at DraftKings – at the time of this writing – Donald Trump is a -120 favorite to be the next president, while Joe Biden is the +185 underdog.

But at PredictIt – which is legal in America, although there is a $850 limit to buying options on any one market – shares in Trump are selling at 44 cents (implied odds +125) and Biden is the favorite, with his shares trading at 48 cents (implied odds +108).

So yeah: Use an online arbitrage calculator, take Biden at +185 at DraftKings, buy Trump at 44 cents at PredictIt, and make 25% on your investment – assuming one or the other wins the election.

And if you think one or the other won’t win the election and want to hedge a bit?

At DraftKings, the next-in-line favorites are: Michelle Obama, +1200; Gavin Newsom, +1800; Nikki Haley, +1800; Robert Kennedy Jr., +2500; Dean Phillips, +2800; and Kamala Harris, +5000.

PredictIt has Newsom trading at 6 cents, Kennedy and Haley at 5 cents a piece, and Harris at 3 cents.

Of course, the game theory optimal strategy might just be to bet on whichever candidate you loathe the most. That way, even if your preferred candidate loses, you can at least be richer for it.

Photo illustration: Pavlo Conchar/Getty Images