UConn Repeat Could Hit Sportsbooks Hard
· 2024-04-08

UConn Repeat Could Hit Sportsbooks Hard

Wilt Chamberlain’s famous quote of “Nobody roots for Goliath” may especially ring true for sportsbooks heading into Monday night’s NCAA Tournament final between UConn and Purdue.

UConn is seeking to become the first team to repeat as NCAA Tournament champions since Florida in 2006-07. The Huskies have run opponents off the court in all 11 tournament games getting to this point, winning each of them by double figures while covering the spread all 11 times.

The public, which has fared well against the sportsbooks in this edition of March Madness, has clearly jumped on the Huskies bandwagon, driving the spread as high as -7.5 points in some places after it opened between -5.5 and -6.5 at most sportsbooks. In addition to the game itself, many bettors are riding UConn futures with Monday night’s championship tilt, with a good portion of them grabbed at plus money if they were placed before the start of the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue and UConn have given bettors wins at each stop en route to the title game, with five wins and five covers apiece. Favorites have covered at a 59.7% clip against the spread (37-25) in the 64-team field, highlighted by an 11-5 performance in the second round. In addition to favorites going 3-1 in the regional final, the public jumped on the bandwagon of No. 11 seed NC State, which upset No. 2 seed Marquette and No. 4 seed Duke in the South regionals en route to its first Final Four appearance since 1983.

Fanatics Sportsbook‘s line opened at UConn -6.5, but when it dropped to -6 was when the public pounced. More than five out of every six tickets written and 94% of the handle on UConn came at that point. Even when it ticked back to -6.5, there was still strong action on the Huskies with 72% of tickets and 81.8% of handle.

“The lookahead line for this game was UConn -6, so I’m a bit surprised it moved off the 6 and 6.5 all the way to 7,” said Shank Subramani, basketball trader at Fanatics Sportsbook. “I think most of the people coming to back Purdue are doing so on the moneyline, but we’re still rooting for the Boilermakers to win. Regarding the line, I think it’s likelier that it comes down to 6.5 before going up anymore; sharper players would eat up a potential 7.5 really quickly.”

The Purdue backers finally started to come around when the line touched UConn -7, with Fanatics reporting more balanced action. The Boilermakers had barely more than half the handle while the Huskies had 52.2% of the tickets. When combining the picks made from UConn -6 to UConn -7, 74.1% of the tickets and 86.6% of the handle is on the defending champion.

BetMGM Public Relations Manager John Ewing tweeted out a Purdue victory would be the best outcome for that sportsbook, followed by a UConn win and Boilermakers cover. A scenario in which UConn wins and covers was listed third among the three possible outcomes followed by a vomit emoji.

— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) March 21, 2024

Elsewhere, DraftKings is on the hook for a potential $2.16 million payout to Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy should UConn win. Portnoy placed a $600,000 futures wager on the Huskies at +360 before the start of the tournament and has thus far resisted calls from his followers on social media to make a hedge bet involving Purdue.

As of 2:45 p.m. CDT, most sportsbooks had UConn as 6.5- or 7-point favorites, though there was some action at UConn -7.5. Hard Rock Bet was the best place to grab the Huskies at -6.5 as they are offering -110, though both bet365 and DraftKings had a -105 listing at UConn -7.  BetRivers is currently offering Purdue +7 at -109.

The total has trended down everywhere since opening at 148.5 points, reaching a consensus at -144.5. FanDuel was offering -106 for the Over, while the Under can be had at -110 via multiple sports betting apps.

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