Looking back on May and ahead to the end of June, Jefferies Equity Research analyst Andrew Lee predicted that “moderating revenue could limit the upside potential to U.S.-facing stocks exposed” to Macau.

Part of the reason is seasonal: Macanese gambling revenues have traditionally slowed in June. Also, May’s numbers were boosted by the Labour Day holiday period of May 1-5.

Although Lee expected Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts to lead the enclave in cash flow, he didn’t feel this was enough of a catalyst to rerate their stocks. However, he liked Galaxy Entertainment and MGM Resorts International, the latter for “Macau execution, as well as domestic opportunities.”

From May 1 to May 10, casinos’ gambling win in Macau was 650 million patacas ($80.7 million) per day. This encompassed two weekends, one of them a holiday. Mass-market and high-roller gambling trends were flat with those of 2023.

Lee found it reasonable to assume that win would slow to as little as $70.8 million per day for the rest of May and throughout June. This would imply overall revenue of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion for May, with June trending lower.

“At the lower end of the range, this would be the lowest monthly [average daily rate] this year and the second highest this year at the top end of the range,” Lee wrote.

Labour Day numbers were, Lee continued, “distorted” by poor weather. Macau averaged 120,879 arrivals per day, which was below the Macao Government Tourism Office’s projected 130,000.

But “a black rainstorm warning” on May 4 drove down attendance. Roughly 300,000 tourists had flocked to Macau on May 2 and 3, but that dropped to 80,000 on May 4.

This broke a string of higher-than-average holiday patronage extending back to Golden Week, when 116,546 a day visited Macau. Chinese New Year saw 1.36 million arrivals per day, whereas the Tourism Office expected 960,000 on average.

The June 8-10 Dragon Boat Festival drew 114,333 a day for three days, which improved last year’s 100,000 a day. However, it’s still short of 2019’s 132,333 per day. In March and April, Macau averaged 87,761 and 86,690 daily visitors.

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