The removal of former Thai prime minister Srettha Thavisin has not diminished support at the top for legal Thailand casinos. Former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, father of Srettha’s successor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, tipped her hand by blessing the plan himself.

Since Paetongtarn Shinawatra became prime minister of Thailand 20 August, one pressing question has been put to rest. Will the new PM, like her predecessor, support the development of entertainment complexes with casinos?

The answer is yes. That assurance didn’t come from Shinawatra herself, but from her father, Thaksin Shinawatra. On 22 August, the former PM laid out a 14-point “Vision for Thailand” to lift the country from the economic doldrums.

“Our economy cannot fall any lower,” Thaksin said in his keynote speech at a Bangkok symposium. “And we need to lift it up quickly.”

Billions in new investment

His plan includes more green energy, less government bureaucracy, lower household and public debt, and upgrades to international airports.

He also supports former PM Srettha Thavisin’s proposal for legal Thai casinos. At maximum, casino floors would occupy 10% of total resort space. So the emphasis would be on non-gaming attractions: amusement parks, hotels, concert arenas, etc.

Thaksin estimates that casino complexes in Bangkok would mean an investment of up to 100bn baht (£2.228bn/€2.636bn/$2.94bn). Properties elsewhere in the country would command about half that.

The rewards could be substantial. A 2023 study found that Thai casinos could increase tourism revenue by at least 408bn baht in the first year alone.

Thaksin’s plan also includes the regulation of online gambling. By one estimate, Thais bet around 3tn baht per year online. Of that, the house keeps about 170bn. Thaksin supports a 30% tax rate on iGaming, with revenue earmarked for education.

Thaksin’s influence could compromise new PM

Thaksin’s emergence as a commentator has some asking who’s really running the show in Thailand. An editorial in the Bangkok Post said his speech was “the talk of the town,” but “not in the most flattering way.”

The controversial former PM held office from 2001 to 2006, when he was overthrown in a military coup. Thaksin was sentenced to eight years in prison for corruption and abuse of power. He claimed the charges were politically motivated, and left the country, spending most of the next 15 years in London and Dubai.

Last September, when he returned, King Maha Vajiralongkorn commuted his sentence to one year. The day his daughter became prime minister, he ended his parole with a royal pardon.

“His high-profile involvement raises a significant question: Who is the boss in the coalition party leadership?” wrote Post editors.

“The reality is that (Paetongtarn’s) rise to power has much to do with dynastic politics,” they continued. That is “problematic, as it closely resembles terms like nepotism and cronyism.”

Paetongtarn has declared she can “think for herself,” and points out that her father holds no government office. However, according to Channel News Asia, she also has “made no effort to disguise her readiness to seek her father’s advice in governing.”

Thailand losing to border countries

Still, legal Thai casinos could be rich with potential for the kingdom, simply by keeping domestic gamblers at home.

A 2019 survey by Thailand’s Centre for Gambling Studies and Centre for Social and Business Development found that 57% of Thais had gambled in the previous year. Many punters cross the border to casinos in Cambodia, Vietnam, Myanmar and Laos. Others willingly patronize the black market.

Despite the current uncertainty, global operators are keeping their eyes on the possible new market. Rob Goldstein, CEO of the Las Vegas Sands Corporation, has called Thailand “a very, very exciting market in a lot of levels.” 

“Just the sheer size of population, the accessibility and the willingness of people to travel to Thailand. It’s obviously, I think, the No. 1 resort destination in Asia,” he posited.

MGM Resorts CEO Bill Hornbuckle has also expressed interest, telling analysts, “That is a venture that we’re interested in.”

But considerable local opposition remains. Chaichana Detdecho, deputy secretary-general of the Democrat Party, has said his party “will not support this bill.” The People’s Party also is not on board, fearing Thai casinos could increase crimes like money laundering.

Supporters of Thai casinos still face an uphill battle, no matter the position of the prime minister—or her father.