Wall Street Bets: Analysts take on AGS’ prospects, Macau outlook, Boyd in Virginia
Regulation · 2024-09-09

Wall Street Bets: Analysts take on AGS’ prospects, Macau outlook, Boyd in Virginia

Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.

David Bain, analyst for B Riley Securities, examined PlayAGS in a note September 8.

“We raise the following estimates for PlayAGS,” Bain wrote. “Neutral, $12.50 price target: CY24E/CY25E EBITDA from $175.0 million/$179.5 million to $176.6 million/$185.5 million. Changes reflect continued cabinet/content momentum and accelerated interactive segment revenue. On August 7, AGS received shareholder approval for its pending sale to Brightstar Capital Partners. As of September 6, AGS trades at an ~10% discount to the agreed $12.50 per share acquisition price. We do not see significant risks to AGS’ anticipated BH25E transaction close. Maintain Neutral.”

“As expected, gaming revenues sequentially slowed in September given that summer has ended, and it is prior to October’s Golden Week holiday (October 1-7), which is the second-largest national holiday in China after Lunar New Year,” wrote Jefferies analyst David Katz in a note September 9. “Looking ahead, however, we anticipate the Golden Week holiday will provide a clear catalyst for the remainder of the year, driven by higher visitation. Year-to-date, Macau has seen overall visitation increase 37%, with the bulk of consumers still traveling from Mainland China (Year-to-date +45% year-over-year). In our view, although it is still 17% lower relative to 2019, visitation to the region should continue to improve and drive gross gaming revenue growth in the coming months.”

Analyst David Katz of Jefferies, in a September 8 note, he examined Boyd Gaming’s announcement that it will be partnering with the Pamunkey Indian Tribe to build a casino in Norfolk, Virginia.

“According to press reports including WKTR online, original development agreements are being negotiated for a minimum $300 million capital investment project that would include a hotel and parking garage,” Katz wrote. “From a regulatory perspective, if the gaming license for this property is not received by Nov 2025, voters in Virginia would need to re-approve the property through another referendum. Therefore, a temporary casino could be constructed imminently to avoid the deadline, followed by the opening of the permanent facility in September 2027. A Norfolk Casino project, if it were to proceed, would be an incremental positive for Boyd but would increase competition for Rivers Portsmouth and other Rosie’s properties owned by Churchill Downs.”

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