The bill is expected to clear the cabinet by the end of 2024 before moving onto the House of Representatives and Senate.

If approved by parliament, it would legalise casinos as part of full-service integrated resorts, akin to IRs in Singapore. Each resort would include at least four nongaming attractions: hotels, stadiums, concert halls and theme parks as well as restaurants, clubs and retail corridors.

“The law should be passed in six months from now at the earliest,” secretary-general Prommin Lertsuridej told Bloomberg News in a 15 November interview. “So it should be next year to start.”

Then the race will be on. Thai lawmakers have indicated they want to open the first of at least five IRs by 2029, a year before Japan’s first IR opens in Osaka. And the rewards could be great: Citigroup estimates that a mature Thai gaming industry could reap annual revenue of $9.1 billion (£7.2 billion/€8.6 billion).

At that level, it would easily displace Singapore, the third largest market behind Macau and Las Vegas. Last year, Singapore’s two casinos—Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa—generated a combined $3.8 billion.

Running the numbers

Under the proposed legislation, licence applicants must be registered in Thailand and demonstrate paid-up capital of at least $286 million. They must pay an initial $141.9 million per licence, along with annual fees of $28.8 million.

The initial rules set out 30-year licences. Operators will be evaluated every five years, while each renewal period will run for a maximum of 10 years. A favorable tax rate of 17% has been proposed, but not finalised.

The government is expected to grant five casino licences to start: two in Bangkok and one each in Pattaya, Chiang Mai and Phuket.

The new market has drawn the interest of “big investors with world-class experience,” Prommin said. “So many people have tried to talk with us.” The list includes at least three Macau operators: Galaxy Entertainment Group, MGM Resorts International and the Las Vegas Sands Corporation. 

Checks and balances

In March, a parliamentary committee voted 253-0 vote to consider entertainment complexes with gaming. Former prime minister Srettha Thavisin pushed IRs to increase global tourism and investment and help root out illegal gambling. The concept has been embraced by his successor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

Apart from a state lottery and licensed horse betting, gambling is currently illegal in Thailand. But that doesn’t mean Thai residents don’t take a flutter.

Fortune magazine cited a 2021 study from the Thailand Gambling Study Center indicating that more than 30.42 million Thais gamble. That’s almost 60% of the total population. Many do so illegally. Others cross into Laos, Cambodia or Myanmar to visit scores of casinos clustered along the border.

To curb excessive gambling, the casino legislation includes an entry fee of $144 for locals. Foreigners would enter for free.

“Legalising casinos in Thailand will help boost income for the country through spending and taxes,” Labour Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn told Nation Thailand in March, when a parliamentary committee first opened discussions on the bill. “It will also help ease the problem of illegal gambling, especially online gambling, which has been growing rapidly these days.”

Ratchakitprakarn added that each entertainment complex would create at least 10,000 direct new jobs. Assuming five IRs, that’s 50,000 or more jobs in a market that has yet to recover from the pandemic, according to the Employers’ Confederation of Thai Trade and Industry.