J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff touted Las Vegas Sands’s prospects in Singapore as part of an investor presentation at the Marina Bay Sands.

The gaming operator highlighted the strengths of the market and showcased the long-term potential of the property, given an $8 billion investment for the second phase of its Marina Bay Sands projects known as IR2, Greff said.

The MBS IR2 development is expected to open in January 2031, featuring 570 luxury suites, a 15,000-seat arena, and 110,000 square feet of meeting and convention space.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has grown EBITDA in Singapore by 24% versus 2019 for the third quarter and by 29% versus the third quarter trailing 12 months. It’s poised to benefit from its ongoing $1.75 billion capital-reinvestment program to elevate its luxury hospitality and tourism offerings, Greff said.

Marina Bay is targeting $2.5 billion of EBITDA before the contribution from its $8 billion project, after which Sands expects $3.5-plus billion property-level EBITDA supported by the capital-investment programs and continued opportunity for growth in travel and tourism spending in Singapore.

Mass-market gaming revenue has been a strong growth driver, up 48% versus 2019 and up 17% year-over-year for the third quarter trailing 12 months, with gaming revenue share growing to 69% for the third quarter versus 63% in 2019. Its EBITDA share grew to 74% versus 65% in 2019, driven by strong premium-mass performance and additional suites and gaming capacity.

In terms of rolling VIP performance, its third quarter trailing 12 months rolling volume sits 5% below 2019 levels, though its rolling win is 10% above 2019 levels, benefiting from higher hold percentage (3.9% versus 3.4% in 2019). Sands sees the completion of the Paiza salons and introduction of Paiza Sky Gaming in the third quarter, along with additional multi-bay suites supporting its long-term growth opportunity in the rolling segment.

Singapore gross gaming revenue has increased 38% versus 2019 to $5.7 billion for the trailing 12-month period, driven by growth in travel and tourism from premium overseas visitors and a strong economic growth in the Asian Pacific region, which is Singapore’s main target of visitation.

From 2013 to 2023, Asian-Pacific countries contributed 70% of total global GDP growth and its GDP has grown at a 4.2% annual rate from 2013 to 2024, reaching $112 trillion, Greff said. Going forward, APAC’s share of total global GDP is expected to increase to 40% by 2030 from 35% in 2025 and 27% in 2010.

In terms of income demographics, Singapore ranks fourth among countries with the most millionaires at 245,000.

Baccarat is one of the key growth drivers at Marina Bay and Sands continues to innovate on its product through the introduction of new game variants, such as Tiger Baccarat (2018) and Dragon Tiger Baccarat (2024). The roll out of Angel Eye Smart Tables incorporates RFID, video analytics, and artificial intelligence. A dual camera plus AI solution was installed across all rolling and premium-mass tables in mid-2024, with the full solution expected to be deployed by the end of 2025. Greff also cited increased rolling hold percentage, benefitting from the introduction of new wager variants and higher player propensity: 3.7% for 2024 so far versus 3.4% in 2019 and 2.8% in 2015.

Sands tenant sales per square foot are 42% above 2019 levels, supported by growth in luxury fashion and watches. MBS retail sales represent about 43% of all tourist retail sales in Singapore versus 26% in 2019. Food and beverage and other revenues are tracking 45% above 2019 for the third quarter trailing 12 months driven by new dining offerings and record banquet and meeting and convention revenues. Sands has benefited from MBS’s “Bay Precinct Strategy,” a collaboration of hotels, leisure, and government partners aimed at enhancing collaboration and improving the value proposition for event organizers, Greff said.

The $8 billion second phase includes $2 billion of land premiums, $4.7 billion of design, development, and construction costs, including $3.4 billion for the hotel, $1.1 billion for the arena, and $200 million for design and development paid as of the third quarter. The budget also includes $300 million for pre-opening expenses and $1 billion for financing fees and interest, Greff said.

J.P. Morgan said its year-end 2025 share-price target remains $60, based on a 2025 earnings “sum-of-the-parts” approach, ascribing a target multiple of 11 times to its Macau interests and a 14-times target multiple applied to Singapore.

Looking ahead, Greff said they remain confident that in Macau, Sands’s Londoner renovation disruption will abate from here, with the newly renovated casino already open and hotel rooms and other revenue-generating inputs opening on a staggered basis in the fourth quarter and into 2025. That should allow the operator to achieve above-Macau-peer growth in 2025.